Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Yea...And So?

 
George Zimmerman's injuries were worse than first reported.
 
OK, and...? There's not one injury listed that is inconsistent with the story as it has unfolded: he stalked a young black man in a hoodie and murdered him. Did he expect that young man would do nothing while being threatened?
 
All it takes is one good punch in the nose to break the nose AND give two black eyes. Or a clumsy fat oaf to fall flat on his face running away from a murder. That would do it too.

Is Google Doomed?

 
One might begin to see the seeds of its decline here:
 iMore reports that Google may make four times the ad revenue off of their use in iOS than they do from their own Android platform. Apple wants to change that. Apple has already begun intermediating search queries though Siri, effectively cutting Google out of the valuable identity information associated with those searches. Next up is that other large data components on iOS, maps.
Google's revenue stream is based on advertising coupled with its unique monopoly on data-farming. In layman's terms, Google's software can extract information from you and sell that information to advertisers. Worse, it can do this on a micromanaged level: every click-thru you make from a Google page is one more data point, and eventually, the blizzard of data you provide presents a frighteningly accurate profile of who you are.
 
Most people come across a Google page at least once a day (I'd bet it's a lot more often than that) whether it's the search engine or a Gmail account or Google+. The only website that could possibly rival it for data-farming would be Facebook, but Facebook has all those stupid games and apps that really don't tell that much of a story (apart from the fact there are a frighteningly large number of would-be farmers out there.)
 
Most people don't opt out of this data dump by signing out of their Gmail or other Google accounts. It's plain laziness coupled with a "who cares?" attitude. Not unreasonably, I guess I should add. After all, for the most part, it's pretty benign tracking and the convenience of being presented with targeted advertisements is in some respects a plus: imagine if you turned on your television and instead of seeing reverse mortgage or penis pill commercials, you saw commercials about things you care about, like raising your kids or your favorite hobby?
 
So Google's livelihood is wholly dependent on being able to quickly amass data and quickly provide that data to its advertisers. The question becomes, then, what happens when its data becomes fuzzy or inaccurate?
 
The advertising becomes less effective. Click-thru wane. Views per sale spikes precipitously as the inverse, sales per views plummets. The personalization and tailoring of advertisements becomes more generic and less targeted. 
 
In other words, if you thought Google's mad scramble to get into mobile telephones was silly and ridiculous, guess again. They saw the writing on the wall: computing had to become less and less about the computer and more and more about on-the-go data access-- mobile computing. 
 
I suppose the writing on the wall for Google parallels that of MicroSoft's: brand extension into areas in which it had no expertise (the X-box, pen-tablet software, BOB) because it saw the demise of its core business as a real threat. Think about the last time anyone got excited about the next Windows software. System 7? Oh wait, that was Apple. Windows 95? Ever since, MicroSoft has wasted billions of dollars on software development (Steve Ballmer estimates that the development of Vista cost 200 man-years more than it should have).
 
The parallels are pretty remarkable, and seem to fit how American businesses operate over the past century: a spectacular rise to market dominance followed by a plateau where innovation is hard to come by and market forces begin to intrude on the business itself, and then a meteoric plummet to at least mediocrity if not outright obsolescence.
 
There's a lesson there for any business in this nation: you don't want to become so big that you can't be nimble.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Now This Could Be A Problem....

 

The Question Becomes...

 
Does she fall on her sword or sell her boss out?
 
My money's on the latter, since she's already radioactive in the industry. She'll do no one any favors by keeping her mouth shut.

Fadbook

The results of this poll sort of reflect my own feelings and experiences with Facebook:

According to a new AP-CNBC poll, 57 percent of Facebook users say they never click ads or other sponsored content when they use the site, with another 26 percent saying they hardly ever engage in such activity.

While the company makes money, in part, simply by displaying sponsored content, user clicks are a critical part of an advertiser’s calculus when gauging how effective those ads are and how much they’re willing to pay for them. In the first quarter, Facebook generated 82 percent of its $1.06 billion in revenue from advertising sales.  In the company’s online IPO pitch to retail investors, CFO David Ebersman says the company is working to make ads “more relevant, more social, and more engaging” as it looks to grow.

And while Facebook has been able to decrease its reliance on sponsored content (down from 98 percent of sales in 2009), the hopes of expanding the company’s e-commerce footprint also faces public resistance, the poll shows. A majority of participants (54 percent) said they wouldn’t feel safe using the platform for financial transactions like purchasing goods or services. Only 8 percent said they would feel extremely or very safe in doing so.

This does not bode well for the long-term future of the company as a public entity. For my part, I'll occasionally click ads to investigate a product more, but I can't remember the last time I've actually bought something off that first click-through.

And "liking pages" allows me to enter contests and keep informed on a particular entity or activity, but usually I find those items in my newsfeed as opposed to clicking over.

There may, in fact, be too much stuff in my newsfeed for me to keep tabs on everything I want to. I don't really need to read the latest Farmville news from friend A, yet the ability to opt out is more work sometimes than its worth. It ought to be an opt-in policy (e.g. if I sign up for Farmville, I ought to be asked if I want to see my friends' activity there, rather than have to go back to my settings to opt out.)

What you'll end up with is a fad: a huge, lasting fad, but a fad nonetheless, with little opportunity to expand beyond its current capacities or abilities. People will get bored.

I think Facebook has plateaued, although that plateau could last a long time. There are some 900 million users and seven billion people on the planet. There's room for growth there.

Zuckerberg probably waited a year, maybe two, too long to issue an IPO. He'll make a boatload of money but the funds to invest in some kind of expansion into some new territory were needed last year: Facebook could have, for instance, partnered with Google to develop a true competitor to the iPad and promised an huge user base with its audience. It would also have prevented Google+ from getting underway-- which has been underwhelming anyway-- and given Facebook a genuine e-commerce stream.

As it was, they took forever to come out with an app for the iPad which is basically just the Safari browser with the Facebook logo slapped on and a pretty shoddy app at that (again, you have to opt out of things like location services and chat.)

My suspicion is that Facebook is a one-trick pony, and that the IPO is a recognition that they've done about all they can with it, and it's time to cash in their chips.

 

Monday, May 14, 2012

Easy Pickings

 
Barack Obama taking on Mitt Romney's abysmal job creation record is a little like critiquing Stalin's abysmal human rights record:

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama is casting Mitt Romney as a greedy, job-killing corporate titan with little concern for the working class in a new, multi-pronged effort that seeks to undermine the central rationale for his Republican rival's candidacy: his business credentials.

At the center of the push — the president's most forceful attempt yet to sully Romney before the November election — is a biting new TV ad airing Monday that recounts through interviews with former workers the restructuring, and ultimate demise, of a Kansas City, Mo., steel mill under the Republican's private equity firm.

"They made as much money off of it as they could. And they closed it down," says Joe Soptic, a steelworker for 30 years. Jack Cobb, who also worked in the industry for three decades, adds: "It was like a vampire. They came in and sucked the life out of us."

The ad, at the unusual length of 2 minutes, will run in five battleground states: Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado. The campaign declined to describe the size of the ad buy though it's in the middle of running a $25 million, month-long ad campaign in nine states. A longer version of the ad was being posted online Monday.

What President Obama can do that numbers don't is put a human face on the suffering that Romney and Bain Capital created. Following a decade of weak job growth since the dotcom bubble burst, Obama can neatly tie vulture capitalists to the job insecurity that plagues the United States working classes.

It's this simple: there once was a mutual loyalty betwixt an employer and an employee: it was for life, or at least as much of life as could possibly exist. Spending 25, 30, 40 or even 50 years working for the same company was not unusual, and neither were retirement parties where the worker's longevity was celebrated with a gold watch and a nice pension.

Factories didn't shut down and jobs didn't move to China. People belonged to unions which protected them from this kind of economic servitude, a job that was constantly under threat. People were fired only for cause and not because they were caught up in a market contraction.

In return, people put in a 40 hour week and if there was more work than could be done in that time, another hand was hired, because it was cheaper than paying double overtime.

Quality products were manufactured. We made things that were inexpensive but not cheap.

You could point to any number of things that contributed to the loss of these opportunities: automation, the expansion of the workforce over the decades, the exploitation of economic inefficiencies, or most likely, the combination of all three.

Worse, if Bain and Romney didn't do it, someone else would have, and in a heartbeat. Thing is, none of them is running for President, and if we want to send a message, if the electorate really wants to show its frustration at people who skim the cream of profits off a company before making it deal with less than 80% of its income in order to manage its future, this is that chance.

No one in America...well, very few of us...want to deny anyone the opportunity to make money, even to make as much money as they can. There are limits, however, something a radical capitalist would turn blue in the face trying to deny.

Taking capitalism to its extremes, we would find the most efficient organizations would make nothing and earn as pure a profit as they can.

We call those "investment banks." And in truth, this is where capitalism and democracy have their toughest battles, for democracy is about equal opportunity and the corporatocracy is about protecting opportunity for those who already have it.

And ain't that the story of America in a nutshell? From the Revolutionary War, where only wealthy land-owners had a say in governance, through the civil rights movement, which finally broke two hundred year old ceilings on opportunities, and to today, where the corporatocracy is reforming in bribery and graft-like political activism, America has paid lip service to equality in favor of restoring an aristocratic rule.

That has to change for this nation to have any chance to survive. If President Obama can make this case, that change is inevitable and that we must be that change we seek (and not just sloganeer it, as seemed to be the case in 2008) then we can start down the road of altering our futures for the better.

I do not envy those who are just leaving the cocoon of family and school and staking their claims to the world. You have a lifetime of hard work ahead of you, and if you've been smart, you've paid attention to the news and to events around you.

The one gift that President Obama may have given this nation that may be beyond measure was the activation of the political instincts of an entire generation of kids who might merely have grown into unintentionally ironic hipsters, poised merely to comment and not commence.

 

Friday, May 11, 2012

Nobody Asked Me, But...

 
1) Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase Bank channels Matt Drudge, ends up with a lot of egg on his face. Seriously....$2 billion? In a fund designed to mitigate risk?
 
 
3) In case anyone is still of the belief that Barack Obama's "change of heart" wasn't calculated, instead of spontaneous, needs to read this. That this story of Mitt Romney as a teenage thug came out in the aftermath is absolutely not a surprise to me, given his complete disregard for the tens of thousands of American workers he and Bain Capital put out of work because they were "weak links."
 
Still, I think this may be a bit early to roll out such a sensational story.
 
Unless there's more-- and worse-- to come.
 
4) The Obama re-election strategy seems pretty clear, however: energize the youth vote (student loan remedies, gay marriage and gay bashings by Republicans, and the early warning shots about income inequality,) then rely on their energy to persuade their parents and siblings and independent voters-- who were primed with the modest seasoning of the bin Laden victory lap.
 
You can win an election one of two ways: you can try to pick the carcass of the two or three percent independent voters or you can plump up your base while frustrating and discouraging the other guy's base. The more successful strategy this year, with a weak opponent like Romney, seems to be triggering your own base.
 
5) I know this is a routine filing, but it looks as though there may be a strong case to be made for dismissal of the charges against John Edwards. I haven't followed the trial that closely, but it sounds like the lynchpin testimony, that he solicited personal gifts to cover his mistakes and not campaing contributions, is fuzzy enough to warrant dismissal.
 
6) The dude made a billion bucks in his pajamas. Shut up.
 
7) Hillary in 2016? I doubt it, and she and the Big Dog seem pretty set in this decision, but never say never. Look for her to try to make a big splash in the second Obama administration (whether she remains at State or leaves,) and if that happens, then she's pondering her chances.
 
8) Up next on the terror watch list: Al J. Fred.
 
9) Game Over. We tilted the machine.
 
 
Happy Mother's Day, all!

Thursday, May 10, 2012

What Do You Really "Own"?

 
In the digital age apparently, not much and everything.
 
 

The Inevitable Earthquake

Some may think Barack Obama's hand was forced.
 
Some may think it was a cynical ploy to garner Gay Money campaign contributions or to pander to the youth vote.
 
Some may simply shoot themselves and the right wing in the foot, talking about distractions that their own party has raised in the middle of a recovery.
 
Obama himself has said his feelings have evolved, as he's witnessed gay couples in the netherworld of "civil unions." Marriage-lite, if you will.
 
And some have treated it like a Romney-sized flip flop.
 
One thing is for sure: it was a monumental statement to make for any President, but doubly so ahead of a re-election campaign against a party that's pledged its not-inconsiderable resources to limit the president to one term. He very neatly swung away from leading from behind to breaking new ground.
 
To be sure, this energizes the base of both parties, and how can that be a bad thing if it forces us to confront issues that many on both sides wish would simply lie dormant? Obama needs that base this year as much if not moreso than he did four years ago. He carries a lot of weight in being the incumbent but the past forty years have taught us that a President who doesn't inspire his party's base will lose re-election.
 
In framing his announcement in this light, we begin to see some other, more clever and subtle things he's done in his first term. The big knock liberals have against Obama is that he's too centrist and that he's turned a deaf ear to the concerns that he addressed in his first campaign.
 
I've long maintained-- from back in the days when the troika of Obama, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton were in the hunt-- that Obama's liberalism was a bit of a sham. Oddly, I soften that stance somewhat in the face of the evidence. I still believe he's a centrist politician (you can't be a national candidate without being centrist) but I think he's actually governed to the left of what I believed he could have. The Lily Ledbetter Act, repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell, and healthcare reform are all staunchly liberal positions to stake out.
 
They are also supremely fair ideals to have: Equal pay, equal rights, equal access to quality affordable healthcare.
 
This is not to say that Obama hasn't staked out some fairly conservative positions, as well. For instance, he opened some offshore drilling sites in 2010 that previously didn't exist, threatening wetlands on both coasts as well as the Gulf of Mexico. TARP was a near-disaster of epic proportions that didn't address the underlying problems, that progressives pointed out: people, not banks, were hurting. It rewarded the one percent for nearly driving us off the cliff, while leaving the 99% to suffer in agony and torment of mounting bills and disappearing jobs. He caved on the Bush tax cuts, all to get a debt ceiling increase. And so on.
 
On balance, and a night's reflection, I tend to believe this is an instance where President Obama weighed his options carefully, realized things balanced out, and decided to go with his heart. It is about fairness, something we've seen is an important factor in his administration.
 
It's up to us to get his back on this. If we want him to be more progressive in his second term, something I have no doubt he wants, its up to us to reward him not only with that second term but with a Congress ready, willing and able to work with him to deliver it.
 
He's shaken the nation to its foundation. Time to wake up.

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

A Sad Day For America


I guess the South really isn't over that whole "Civil War" ass-kicking we gave them over human rights and liberty.

Why Is Conor Friedersdorf Being So Douchey?

 
After reading his column, I have to scratch my head a little.
Check out Chuck Todd, NBC's chief White House correspondent, openly speculating that President Obama is going to embrace same-sex marriage because he needs money from gay people. "Gay money in this election has replaced Wall Street money," he reported. NBC's David Gregory agreed. For some reason, neither man seemed to think this theory reflects poorly on the president.

Then the conventional wisdom shifted. Observers were basing their guesses on the fact that HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan and Vice President Joe Biden had both made statements in support of same-sex marriage. The same-sex-marriage supporters who praised these developments were
as quickly dismayed when the White House walked back Biden's statements, insisting that like Obama, Biden's views on the subject were still "evolving," a euphemism that seems to mean they'll favor either marriage equality for gays or discrimination against them depending on their moment-to-moment judgments about what's best for them politically.

Sounds like Mitt Romney's position!
He goes on to list about a dozen intitiatives that Obama has failed to deliver to progressives on (thus, the snarky jab at "gay money") but fails to list even one initiative that Obama has succeeded with.
 
Like Lily Ledbetter. Like healthcare reform (such as it is, it's still the first success attempt at passing a fairer system for all.) Like any number of other initiatives that came up and passed in the first two years.
 
Things like this require political capital and if you have an opposition party who's announced aim is to prevent you from having a second term, you have to deal with the hand dealt you.
 
Even on the list of things he claims Obama has not accomplished, Obama has accomplished a lot. Take, for example, this ridiculous claim:
  • Obama tricked anti-war voters into thinking that he wouldn't order American troops into battle unless there was an imminent threat to America or a declaration of war from Congress, then went to war in Libya, violating the War Powers Resolution, even though neither condition was met.
  • Sixteen confirmed troops set foot in Libya, and those were to help in the rebuilding of the US Embassy in Tripoli and none of them were anywhere near the battles. Some rumours placed the number as high as 12,000, but that was Alex Jones, the famous conspiracy nut, humping that theory like a chicken.
     
    Now, he has a point in one regard: Obama made plenty of promises on the campaign trail that he hasn't kept.
     
    And....your point is? If every politician who ran for office kept all their promises, no one would run for office anymore.
     
    We'd have a dictatorship. Those are the only folks who can guarantee their promises.
     
    Friedersdorf is clearly terrified that, OMG!, Obama might actually be free to make good on many of his promises in a second term!


     

    The Science Of LOLcats

    (Photo courtesy)
     
    And their role in "haz intellijince"

    It Was Worth It

    ...I think.
     
    As you no doubt have heard by now, the US foiled a new and improved underwear bombing scheme dreamed up by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (apparently, Al Qaeda has a franchise operation.)
     
    Jingoistic heel-clicking aside, the counterterror operation involved human intelligence and a double agent:

    (CBS News) NEW YORK - It's a stunning revelation in the foiled plot to blow up a U.S.-bound airliner: The triggerman chosen by al Qaeda was actually a double agent who was working for the CIA and Saudi intelligence services.

    He delivered the explosive device to U.S. intelligence officials and provided information on the whereabouts of Fahd al Quso, the senior commander of al Qaeda's wing in Yemen, who was killed in a drone strike last weekend. It's an intelligence victory, but it came with a cost.

    U.S. intelligence officials faced a difficult decision. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was looking for a suicide bomber. The target: an American jetliner. The only way for intelligence officials to ensure they controlled the plot was to have their own agent volunteer to be the bomber and then hand the bomb to the CIA. The tradeoff: They would lose a source penetrated deep inside the organization - but they would save lives.

    There is a balance that needs to be struck when battling terrorism. Indeed, there are several balances to be struck, from the balance of individual freedoms versus the safety of the citizenry to trading a deep cover source to save lives.

    Long-time readers of my writings know that I am foursquare against violating individual rights for gaining temporary security and safety. Terrorism is a transient war, at worst, and at it's best, it becomes almost a thing of parody.

    This is not to disrespect the families and co-workers of those who have died in any terror attack anywhere, but apart from a few bombs lobbed at ships and Hummers and one or two lucky strikes on American soil, Al Qaeda has hardly made a dent in our collective-- and I stress, collective-- day to day lives.

    You want to understand what real terror is like, talk to anyone who lived in Belfast during The Troubles.

    Wars against concepts like drugs, or poverty or terror are wars that cannot be won in a traditional sense, but the nomenclature of "war" helps keep the public supporting it. A war against poverty will not eliminate poverty but it can help those who need a hand, and so long as we don't morph "poverty" into "the poor," as the Republicans have, then we might actually have a working society.

    Similarly, a war against terrorism is never going to end terrorism. Even if we wipe out Al Qaeda's operative abilities, there will be other terrorists around, and it won't take long for terrorism to spread once more.

    A war against terrorism justifies any number of atrocities, but just focus on the fact that under the Bush Doctrine, we've announced to the world that we will march into any nation if we feel they are harboring some nebulous terror group that might have a grudge against us and be willing to act on it.

    We've long had the ability to do just that, but until 2001, we've felt it important to respect the sovereignty of most nations, even if we have broken with that vow on occasion, even publicly.

    The war on Iraq and, to a lesser extent have demonstrated even that important restraint can be violated willy-nilly now.

    Parallel to this new wrinkle in America's posture is a willingness to look inward and harass and even kill American citizens whom we feel might bear us ill will and act upon it. The more we learn that disrespecting civil rights and individual sovereignty abroad bears few repercussions, the more likely we will turn those guns domestically.

    After all, look at what two reasonable men have done since 2001. Now imagine someone far more ideological sitting in the White House. It has happened-- John Adams-- and it will happen again. If you think there isn't a possible outcome where a staunch anti-family autonomy President doesn't sit with a Congress willing to do his dirty work, then you have to re-read American history.

    Had the underwear bombing been successful, I have no doubt there would have been increased security measures put in place in US airports, from doubling the number of body scanners and pat-downs at airports to who knows what. We would have lost even more civil freedom in the illusion of safety.

    So is sacrificing a deep covers friends, allies, and possibly family, is sacrificing a fount of intelligence gathering, worth that price, a little more freedom?

    Oh. Hell. Yea.


     

    Tuesday, May 08, 2012

    Stormclouds Gather

     

    INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — The face of Indiana politics for nearly four decades, Republican Sen. Richard Lugar is battling for political survival against a tea party-backed GOP challenger who says the senator has become more interested in compromising with liberals in Washington than representing conservatives back home.

    You read that right, folks: conservatives have been "compromising" with us.

    If you don't think this spells the death of the GOP, I'm not alone in that opinion. Other Republicans seem to acknowledge this.

     
     

    Forced His Hand

     
    Well, Bibi is broken and will now have to sit down with the Palestinians for reals.
     
    Now, before we open the champagne, let's note that Netanyahu forced the issue himself, which means he didn't just surrender to the alignment surrounding him: he's still in control which means he's still going to have final say on what transpires.
     
    But it seems pretty clear that the Kadima Party-- Netanyahu's main adversary in the Knesset-- extracted a price from his flesh, which means he has to at least go through the motions of making overtures to Mahmoud Abbas and the PA in order to keep his own clutch on power.
     
    The one real bright spot is that Shaul Mofaz, the leader of Kadima, is dead set against pre-emptive action against Iran and as a former military chief and defense minister, has some stroke in this area.
     

    Tear Down The Wall

     
    I alluded yesterday to the elections in Greece, in which the EU plan to bailout the nation in exchange for austerity measures to be put in place was symbolically rejected and a new government elected.
     

    A Greek political party leader who has vowed to rip up the terms of Greece’s international bailout was handed the mandate to try and form a government after Antonis Samaras of New Democracy failed to forge an agreement.

    “This is a great moment for the Left, a great responsibility for me,” Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party placed second in May 6 elections, told President Karolos Papoulias in Athens today. Tsipras aims to forge a coalition of “leftist” parties that would overturn current bailout policy.

    Greece’s Parliament is split down the middle on whether to renege on the terms of the two bailout agreements negotiated since May 2010. With the risk increasing of instability in Greece, the epicenter of the debt crisis, policy makers in Europe urged Greek leaders to quickly agree on a new government.

    Austerity measures work only when you can't increase income. If you have a job and owe a lot of money, it's easier to cut your expenses temporarily than it is to go in and ask for a raise. Austerity measures stop making sense when you can take the money you have (or borrow) and get a better economic return on it than you would by holding the line on expenditures.

    That might, and I stress, might, make sense for Greece, whose income has been stagnant for years and who hasn't shown a capacity for growing its way out of debt. A balance of careful investment targets coupled with some moderate shifts in spending might buy that nation enough time to get itself out of trouble.

    But take a nation like Spain, which is already lurching towards default: here's an economy that was vibrant and growing before the worldwide housing bubble. Indeed, up to 2005, Spain created over one-half of the net jobs created in all of Europe, and was poised to overtake Germany in leadaing the EU in per capita income.

    You know the rest: it's the same story as here in the States. Cheap lending rates, people bought and flipped houses they couldn't afford as they were goaded on by the same nefarious criminals as our Wall Street firms employed.

    Shouldn't Spain be spared the austerity whipping? Apparently not, although to be fair the EU has put out signals that it may be more lenient on terms with Spain.

    But then that begs the question, why is Greece being picked on? After all, if it's good for the gander, it's good for the goose. And it's not like Greece isn't too big to fail: estimates are the EU would lose one trillion euros if Greece collapses and is ushered out of the Union.
     
    There seems to have been blunders made on all sides of this confrontation: the EU underestimating the size of Greece's impact, Greece underestimating the anger of its people to an austerity package as well as underestimating the strength of its bargaining position.
     
    I think its time for cooler heads to prevail.

    Monday, May 07, 2012

    Y'know All Those Late Night Infomercials For Men?

     
    The ones that tout those "testosterone-enhancing" pills/gels/penis pumps?
     

    How Sure Is Obama That He'll Be Re-Elected?

     
    He's floating the trial balloons he should have floated in 2009.

    On The Fence

     
    Part of me wants to see this movie in the theatre.
     
    Part of me wants to wait for the DVD and watch it at home.
     
    Maybe I've gotten too old to sit for a movie (goodness knows, they're long, loud, obnoxious and soda flies through me like shit through a goose nowadays.) Maybe I'm just cynical that I'm going to sit for long stretches really bored with "plot development" and setting up future sequels and spin offs, like watching one long television commercial with product placements.
     
    I'll probably wait.

    This Is What A Socialist Looks Like

    Francois Hollande scratched out a victory over Nikolas Sarkozy yesterday in the French elections.
     
    I say "scratched out," because a three point victory over a wildly unpopular president is not exactly a drubbing, but it's also not exactly a close call.

    Elected, Sarkozy showed himself to be a canny political card player. There was, for example, “l'ouverture” – Sarkozy's carefully-targeted effort to dismantle the Socialist Party by recruiting some of its brightest lights into Sarkozy's new right-wing government as ministers and senior officials. This cut the Socialist Party's leadership off at the knees, demoralized its membership, appropriated some of its best talent, reframed Sarkozy as a big-tent president who would govern for all the French – and left him perfectly free to pursue his policies exactly as he intended to do, validated by some of his most dangerous opponents. Demonstrating, as has occurred many times in politics in many countries before and since (in Britain, in the fate of the Liberal Democrats, for example), that weaving opponents into your team is an excellent way to defeat them.

    However, the collapse of the world financial bubble and then the socialization of its losses (one of the greatest transfers of wealth from the poor to the rich in world history) removed the raison d’être of the Sarkozy presidency. In this, it can be said that France dodged a bullet. The country was lucky that it elected Sarkozy relatively late in the era of the madness of the rentiers. He didn't have time to turn France into, say, Ireland or Iceland. And so France was spared the worst. Sarkozy then attempted to reframe himself as the opposite of himself, but it never rang true. He was never a credible “social market” builder.

    Despite his best efforts, Sarkozy could not wheel France around into a mini-America fast enough before the people realized what happened. Vive la France et les Francaise!

    Sarkozy leaves behind a mess of xeonophobia, of angry workers and young people, and at best a muddled political party with a flimsy and loosely-knit message to oppose the Socialists.

    This sentiment has repercussions far beyond the French borders, of course. As a member of the EU and with Sarkozy one of the most influential figures in that Union, the anti-austerity forces can now point to France as a main reason why attempts to shore up flagging economies by imposing "order and discipline" (read that as tax cuts for the rich and services cuts for everyone else).

    Indeed, the concurrent elections in Greece, which brutalized the political centre, reinforce this perception.

    Que la France va, ainsi va l'Europe. And as Europe goes, so goes America. Think about it.

    After all, it was the French Revolution that truly brought power to the people (the American Revolution brought power to the people who were wealthy white land owners, but that changed after the French Revolution filtered through Europe) which toppled dynasties and empires up and down the continent (eventually) and it was Europe's reaction to the Great Depression that eventually saw America get Social Security and other social programs designed specifically for the working classes.

    It's a clear signal to the world that the left has stirred and is beginning to flex its muscles, en masse. The election of Barack Obama as a reaction to the conservatism of the Bush administration-- it's no surprise conservatives abandoned Bush in 2008-- Arab Spring, the Occupy movement, and now the first real round of elections in Europe since the economic crisis concretized have shown that people are tired of conservatives bleatings of lower taxes and less for the people.
     
     

    Friday, May 04, 2012

    Nobody Asked Me, But...

    I have a mild irritation today that sits about four feet outside my boss's office, so lets get to this, shall we?
     
    1) Ring down the curtain on a long and storied career, Mariano. Sadly, he's a first ballot Hall of Famer in my mind but the thing is, the position he "plays" is practically unnecessary in major league baseball. The closer, the final reliever to come in with a lead, is a specialty that it's about time we acknowledge really does nothing to improve the team's chances of winning a game: the major league average for teams with a lead of three or fewer runs going into the final at-bats of the opposing team is a winning percentage just north of 95%. This is true of champions and basement dwellers. If you win 100 games a season, that means 95 of them were pretty much ordained from the get-go. Ninety five wins is usually good enough for the post-season and if you miss it, you could probably point to any number of games where you should have won but didn't because of an error or a poorly executed at-bat. I figure Mariano Rivera might have been worth 20 wins total over his career, including playoffs.
     
    2) Angry Republicans with guns. Not a good thing.
     
    3) The headline says it better than I can.
     
    4) That was a pretty loud Scream.
     
    5) It seems pretty clear to me that Osama bin Laden suffered from a disturbing level of paranoia and schizophrenia, but he was awfully savvy in the ways of politics and diplomacy.
     
    6) If it gets below 8% by November, I think we can seal Obama's second term.
     
    7) When history has its say on the 2012 election, this was Mitt's Eagleton moment
     
    8) By the way, I think this reboot of Sherlock Holmes is some of the finest television this century.
     
     
    10) The other white meat stinks...to some people.

    Thursday, May 03, 2012

    Probably Not Going To Work, Mittens

     
    If you invoke the spectre of Jimmy Carter, Obama's obvious response to smack you down with He Who Will Not Be Named (at any event that the Republicans officially hold). Trust me, you don't want to be tarred with the label "Bush Lite."

    "Long Shot"? How About "No Shot"?

     
    I guess Newt's idea was to live fat off the hog of someone else's money for six months or so:

    (CBS News) After bowing out from the Republican presidential race Wednesday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is no worse off than he was before he ran for president, says CBS News Chief Washington Correspondent Bob Schieffer. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, will likely have to deal with some of Gingrich's less-than-complimentary "sound bites" about him for the remainder of the campaign.

    "Gingrich knew from the very beginning that this was a long shot, but he also knew what a lot of other Republicans know, that there are many, many Republicans on the right side of the party who simply don't like Mitt Romney, who don't believe that he is one of them, a true conservative," Schieffer told Charlie Rose Thursday on "CBS This Morning."

    So basically, all Newt did was drink beer, take bus rides and give performances. Just living out the rock star dream, I suppose.

    Oh. And throwing bombs. Never forget the bombs. The question becomes: what kind of damage has he inflicted on the Romney campaign?

    I mean, it's not as though had Newt played nice all primary season long, Mitt would have jumped out to an imposing lead over Obama, and certainly there's plenty of time between now and the election for Obama to jump way ahead of Mitt and annoint his second term.

    Newt, however, certainly put a damper on any reasonable attacks Romney might have attempted:

    He (ed. note: Gingrich) [...] mercilessly condemned Romney as a man who “can’t be honest,” who “looted a company” and who “doesn’t seem capable of inspiring positive turnout.”

    Calling the guy you're about to throw your considerable weight behind a boring, thieving liar is going to leave a lot of raw material for the Obama campaign to construct commercials around.

    And you have to know that the Obama camp is dying to pick a fight with the right wing, particularly the uberconservatives, because of their dilletantist demeanor in his first term. He won't want to just beat them, he'll want to stomp a mudhole in them and then do a Mexican Hat Dance around the hole. Using Newt as their conduit will merely serve to make it that much sweeter, despite the fact that Newt all but agreed with the President on the Ryan tax plan.

    Still, it was fun to have Gingrich to kick around: Callista's whore diamonds, bouncing checks, the revelation that any hotel room he stays in must have access to two bathrooms, no brown M&Ms in the candy dish...ok, I made that one up, still you get the point.

    His withdrawal from the race and Schieffer's revelation that he was half-hearted to begin with, cast a whole new light on Gingrich's candidacy. It points out a positive and a negative.

    The positive, of course, is that he was at least realistic that he was tilting at windmills and behaved accordingly. The negative is he disrespected the American (and particularly, Republican) electorate and mocked them with his very presence in the race and his lack of seriousness and discipline in committing to the office.

    In a sense, he pre-ordained his failure by ordaining his levity.

     

    Wednesday, May 02, 2012

    How Democratic Is That?

    If I have a million dollars to spend on a candidate, and you have a dollar, then clearly the spirit of democracy is perverted. We are each one citizen in the nation, and so should have about equal say in matters.
     
    However, if I have a million dollars and you have a million people with one dollar, the democracy works, but only a little bit better. You still have to persuade all those people to part with their dollar towards your cause, and that's not easy. It can be done, and as Barack Obama's early 2008 campaigning proved, it can be done effectively.
     
    It's still easier for me to get my consensus of one to agree to spend the money, to whom and how. You'll probably have a million different, "Oh, by the ways" to deal with.
     
    And of course, if I have one dollar and you have a million people with one dollar, we're on roughly equal footing in terms of the democratic process, for I can go out and enlist a million people too.
     
    Similarly, if I have one vote and you have a million people with one vote, things are fair. Again, I can persuade people to vote with me.
     
    Conservatives love to point out how this is a free speech issue, and I suppose there's some truth to that: if I own a larger share of the pie, I should have a bigger voice in what shapes my community. Plus, everyone still only has the one vote, the true measure of democracy.
     
    Or is it? Money doesn't just buy access to votes and persuasion of citizens, it buys access to lawmakers, and indeed, disproportionate access. Some would say that's the way things should be, since those who have a bigger stake in the nation's future ought to have a bigger say in it.
     
    But then we have to discard the illusion that we're a democracy. We've become a plutocracy or more accurately, a corporatocracy. Because corporations can't vote, the only way they can register their opinions and thoughts is through lobbying officeholders and candidates.
     
    If you ascribe to the notion that corporations are people, too, then you see no problem with this, but there's a hidden problem. 
     
    There's no accountability. We just saw this in the late 2000s, and undoubtedly will see it again, as regulations get passed with enough loopholes to drive ExxonMobil through. We saw it in the BP Gulf oil spill, when BP paid lip service to local and international concerns while covering up the mess as best they could (and failing, I should add.) 
     
    If, as liberals believe, government is the bulwark against corporatism, that government is the third leg of the stool that supports America-- the others being citizenry and business-- and there's no check or balance against corporatism, democracy's days are numbered.
     
    The only way any progress can be made is in the rare instance of a second term progressive President (note I don't specify Republican or Democrat. I suspect that pendulum may have started swinging for reasons I'll get to in a minute,) and a majority progressive Congress.
     
    And even then, if the progressivists have members in their caucus like Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson, there will still be outsize influence with respect to an agenda that values citizens above corporations, and freedom above profit. Meanwhile, in the other caucus lay a few time bombs for them-- moderate Republicans who see the damage that's been inflicted not on Democrats, who caught up in the money game, but to the people of the nation in toto.
     
    And as Teabaggers begin to get frustrated with losing the agenda arguments, they'll either likely retire or more certainly be less vociferous in their opposition. One can only have so many "stroke-rages" before the body shuts you down. I think this, above anything else, will be what renders all that corporate money useless, and it is at that point we ought to start thinking about Constitutional amendments.
     
    Democrats only hold the center because the Republican party has deliberately given the nation the appearance of being more conservative than it is. By trying to pull the apparent center even further right...I mean, really? Life begins 2 weeks before the first missed period now, according to one proposal?...Republicans are scaring people, particularly women and Latinos, to the center.
     
    By my count, it took the Democrats three elections to realize they had tacked too far to the left in the face of a changed landscape (e.g. cable news, the Religious Right, and other exogenous factors to politics and administration.) By my count, this will only be election number two that Republicans will have suffered an ignominious defeat before they, too, tack back towards the center.
     
     
     

    Monday, April 30, 2012

    Y'know, I See A Problem With This

     
    What happens if someone goes up to their rooftop to smoke?

    Because Only The Free Market Can Solve Problems...

     
    And Google does no evil!
     
    These and other myths shattered here.

    That Wooshing Sound

     
    The sound you're hearing is the noise of a blast fax careering around the right wing echo chamber:

    This is very clever--and very silly. The deficit last year was $1.3 trillion. With the Buffett rule in place, it would have been $1.295 trillion. Last year the tax credit for energy-efficient improvements to homes cost almost as much as the Buffett rule will raise annually ($4.7 billion on average). The President's proposal for keeping a low interest rate on some college loans, at $6 billion next year, costs more. The Buffett rule is government by catchphrase.

    In the same vein, the President recently vowed to hunt down and stop energy "speculators," lest they "reap millions while millions of American families get the short end of the stick." Good luck with that. No one seriously believes--surely not even Obama--that speculation is responsible for this year's rise in oil prices, now beginning to recede. The President is sending the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on a make-believe mission after nonexistent villains because it sounds good. On the election's most central issue, the economy, Obama is stuck in a minor key. He offers no major reforms in taxes or entitlements, no new stimulus, no departures whatsoever. He is obsessed with the marginalia of green energy, which is less than 10% of the energy sector and is prone to a bust unless the subsidies keep on rolling. He is content to watch his party's majority in the Senate desperately maneuver to avoid the pain of even voting on a budget. Evasion is the order of the day.

    What the Obama campaign lacks in substantive heft it will try to make up in relish for tearing apart Romney. He will be portrayed as out of touch, strange, secretive and--occasionally by Obama allies--Mormon. In this highly personal demolition, Romney has already been made out as hostile to women and cruel to dogs. Someday political scientists will marvel that a top adviser to the President of the United States once joined a drumbeat over an opponent's transporting his dog in a kennel on the roof of his car ... in the 1980s.

    Compare and contrast:

    “You know, we had the Buffett Rule,” he said. “You know, it went on for months. Even the president admitted it was a gimmick. And then we have the Rose Garden ceremony talking about manipulation in the oil markets, without one shred of evidence. And he has an entire administration to go after speculation or manipulation in the oil markets. And then they picked this student loan fight where there is no fight.”

    It's almost like they have the same hands up their asses.
     
    But back to Lowry's latest dump on the floor. Apart from the complete lack of coherent syntax (his grammar is almost human, however) and lack of illustrative metaphor, his logic falls apart when you consider those silly things: "facts."
     
    Take oil price manipulation, for example.
     
    Or the Buffett Rule, which isn't about the amount of money it raising in the face of $45 trillion in budget deficits over the next decade (presuming limited growth, etc.). It's about two things: an acknowledgement by those who have that they've been ungrateful bastards and an acknowledgement that this is just the tip of the iceberg, that the real debate starts later this year when the Bush tax cuts are set to expire.
     
    But hey, GOP! You just keep plucking that bald chicken, a'ight?

     
     

    Some Fun, Sort Of

     
    If you haven't read or heard anything about the annual White House Correspondent's Dinner on Saturday night, well, you missed a doozy.
     
    It wasn't particularly funny, but it did have an underlying nasty edge to it. Jimmy Kimmel was MC, with performances by President Barack Obama and former NBC correspondent David Shuster, who got off the cutting remark of the night when he pointed out the Gingriches were attending, and noted "I guess their check cleared."
     
    To his credit, Kimmel didn't fawn over Obama and had a zinger or two in his arsenal: "There's a term for Presidents like you, just not two terms."
     
    It was Obama himself who had some of the best and most cutting lines of the night, but even there, you could tell he was playing it safe.

    “Last year at this time, this very weekend, we finally delivered justice to one of the world’s most notorious individuals,” Obama said. Then a picture of real estate mogul Donald Trump appeared on the room’s television monitors. The president last year delivered a scathing roast of Trump, who flirted with running for the Republican nomination and claimed he had solved the “mystery” of Obama’s birth certificate.

    Obama also took a shot at the Republican congressional leadership, whom he thanked “for taking time from their exhausting schedule of not passing any laws” to attend the dinner.[...]

    “[Mitt Romney and I] both have degrees from Harvard. I have one, he has two. What a snob.”

    The crack drew a thumbs up from former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who was in the audience. Santorum dropped out of the presidential primary campaign earlier this month. He had called Obama a snob for encouraging young Americans to attend college.

    And there was a luscious, scrumptious video joke ("voke"?) of a faux-campaign commercial put together by Romney, using Air Force One...

    It's not even May yet. We have six months more of this crap...sorry, Seamus...still to come, but it's nice it kicks off with a few laughs.

     

    Oh, This Is Not Going To Go Well!

     
    Lemme see...you rebuild the most famous disaster ship in history, sail it on exactly the same course it took on its ill-fated maiden voyage (Enland to New York City) and to top it all off, you enlist the Chinese navy to escort you?
     
    I once coined the phrase "glittering disaster" when I wrote a poem about a failed relationship, but I believe this might be a more appropriate use. Expect four years of right-wing head explosions in 3...2...1...