Shall We Play A Game?

Idiot! Fucking idiot!:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush warned on Wednesday a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to World War III as he tried to shore up international opposition to Tehran amid Russian skepticism over its nuclear ambitions.

Bush was speaking a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has resisted Western pressure to toughen his stance over Iran's nuclear program, made clear on a visit to Tehran that Russia would not accept any military action against Iran.

Here's the really scary part:

"We've got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel," he said. "So I've told people that, if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon."

(emphases added)

Oh good lord! Rachel Maddow of Air America Radio said it better than I ever could on the Today show this morning. Bush isn't threatening war with Iran over nuclear weapons, he's threatening war over the "knowledge necessary" to make nukes, meanwhile, you have an unstable regime in the region that already has nukes, has tested them, and is passing on the "knowledge necessary" to anyone who pays enough (Pakistan).

Against this backdrop comes this curious little news item:

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Iran a "special message" on its disputed atomic program and other issues, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator was quoted as saying on Wednesday, without giving details.

Somehow, I'm guessing it wasn't a long distance dedication on American Top 40 with Casey Kasem....more likely, it was "We'll stand by and stop any UN sanctions, but you have to stop picking fights with Bush. Wait until the next administration and maybe we can all sit down and let saner heads prevail."

Speaking of "saner", one of the talking points on the right wing has been about Bush's "tough talk" with Iran (and Russia and China), openly talking about World War III. Apparently, none of them could recall the last time a President said those magic words.

Um, hullo? IT'S BECAUSE THIS PRESIDENT IS AN INSANE FUCKING LOON!, whereas every other President, including Ronald Reagan, was at least close to sane.

One of the more bizarre aspects of this posturing on Bush's part (one can only hope that he's secretly playing "good cop, bad cop" with Putin's assistance...but I doubt it) is the flimsy evidence that Iran has developed anything close to the capability to even develop the "knowledge necessary," beyond what a college freshman might learn in a physics class.

After all, we invaded Iraq on "evidence" that, at least on its face, was far stronger for Saddam Hussein having WMDs (after all, we had the receipts to prove that) which turned out in fact to be bogus, setting aside even the question of weapons inspectors for a moment.

Who figured Hussein was more truthful than Bush? It was easy to believe Bush, frankly because we wanted to and the nation was itching for a fight.

This time, however, the sense I get is that the rhetoric has been ratcheted up, which tells me that the evidence is even more flimsy and even more bogus (Iraq, at least at one time, had WMDs).

The Bush brinkmanship doctrine doesn't even have a clear offsetting nuclear power to keep it in check at this time.

Russia would of course stand up to us. It would have to, but it would do so reluctantly, and it's not clear that it would do it in a sufficiently timely fashion in order to avoid a nuclear exchange. China might get involved, but then again, it might see an opportunity to let the world go to hell in a handbasket, then pick up the pieces and pluck the ripe fruit. With that much land to hide in, there's really no reason for it to get involved unless forced to.

Which brings us back to the sanity clause...

Putting The Other Foot Into It

"What say we burn down some Bush?"
As Larry Craig's travails and reclamation effort dominates the national news scene, little noticed on the mainstream media was America's attempts this weekend to create an "us v. them" handicap tag team match in the global wrestling ring:

BEIJING (Reuters) - China expressed fury on Tuesday that the United States is to honor the Dalai Lama with an award and warned that the activities of his supporters were increasing in Chinese-controlled Tibet.

The Dalai Lama, who has lived in exile in India since staging a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959, is to receive the U.S. Congressional Gold Medal on Wednesday after being hosted at the White House by President George W. Bush.

"We are furious," Tibet's Communist Party boss, Zhang Qingli, told reporters. "If the Dalai Lama can receive such an award, there must be no justice or good people in the world."

Now, say what you will in admiration of the Dalai Lama-- and I do-- the timing on this award is suspect, to say the least.

First off, you have Secretary of State Condi Rice (no full names here, she hasn't earned that distinction) picking a fight with the Russians. That little masterful piece of idiocy came hard on the heels of Vladimir Putin treating Condi and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates like unruly schoolchildren the day before, making them cool their heels for 40 minutes outside his office before scolding them for the new missile defense program.

I think we know whom he really wanted to scold, the Boy King in the White House, but he settled.

And now this dust-up with China. The Chinese issue with the Dalai Lama is simple: they can't harm him directly, since he lives in exile in India.

Think of the Dalai Lama as China's Castro, and you have an inkling of the difficult position China has found itself in. Now add to that the fact that the Dalai Lama is the spiritual leader of nearly a billion Chinese (despite the official atheist stance of the government), Tibetans and Mongolians.

It's as if Castro was a high Israeli Rabbi. The Dalai Lama has enormous influence in China by not being there.

Talk about a moment of Zen!

The only legitimate reason I can think of (bear with me, I'm thinking as I type this) for pissing off BOTH Russia and China in the same week is to create a three-way dynamic of mistrust.

China and Russia have improved relations in the past twenty years in a way that China and America have not, and in opposition to the way America and Russia have frosted their relationship during the current administrations (Bush and Putin's, I mean). To drive some sort of wedge in between them woudl probably limit any concerted efforts on their part to foment opposition to any moves we might make in the Middle East, including invading Iran, if indeed that is on the table.

But to be sure, not only is this a stupid strategy in terms of accomplishing its goal ("the enemy of my enemy is not my enemy"), it's flat out dangerous for America.

So, in the past four days, the United States President has embarked on a mission of antagonistes, taking direct aim at human rights violations by our two biggest rivals, and sticking their noses in them.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I don't see a whole lot of upside to this, do you?

Are We Picking Yet ANOTHER Fight?

On the heels of yesterday's tense meeting between Condi Rice, Robert Gates and Vladimir Putin of Russia, comes this stupid spewing from the Secretary of State:

MOSCOW (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Russian human rights activists on Saturday she wanted to help them build institutions to protect people from the 'arbitrary power of the state'.

The meeting could irk the Kremlin, which is sensitive to Western accusations it is rolling back democratic freedoms and suspects foreign governments of trying to influence the outcome of next year's presidential election.

I have two points to make here, both of which I can sum up in an anecdote.

Imagine, if you will, Nikita Kruschev coming back from the grave, and standing up in front of, say, Yearly Kos, and saying essentially the same thing.

OK, my two points:

1) What the fuck is Rice trying to do, ignite a nuclear holocaust?

2) When will Condi stand up for the rights of Americans to protect us from the arbitrary power of the state?

That is all. I'm too angry to write much else.

Keeping Half An Eye On This....

In light of the current hoopla over US-Russian relations...obviously, Bush didn't look deeply enough into Pootie's eyes...comes this intriguing little sidebar:

BISHKEK (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Tuesday Washington's agreement to use a military air base in Kyrgyzstan was necessary to support the war in Afghanistan.

Last month Kyrgyz lawmakers urged the government to evict U.S. troops from the base which is an important hard currency earner for the impoverished Central Asian state.

"I think what's important for the people of Kyrgyzstan to understand is that our use of Manas (Air Force Base) is in support of a larger war on terrorism in which Kyrgyzstan is an ally of virtually every other nation on earth," Gates said.

"We are all working to try and prevent a resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and our use of Manas is one way in which Kyrgyzstan can play a very important and constructive role in cooperation with many other nations, just not the United States," he told reporters after meeting Kyrgyzstan's minister of defense.

The United States has about 1,200 U.S. troops in Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyz officials have demanded Washington pay more for the use of the base.

Not much to this, is there, huh? Think again: Kyrgyzstan is one of the former Soviet states, and still has relations (however frosty) with Russia. By proxy, Putin is holding the war on terror as ransom in Kyr...Kryg...this place.

"Proxy" was how wars in Viet Nam, Korea, and Afghanistan were fought during the Cold War. "Prozy" is what the Cuban Missile Crisis was all about.

This particular Asian country is important to maintaining a presence in the region, since the Afghan campaign has hit a rocky patch, and as troops are pulled out of Iraq over American disgust with that invasion, troops may be pulled out of Afghanistan as the failure to really take down Al Qaeda and the Taliban becomes more apparent.

So we have Putin and Bush tossing verbal jabs at each other, a failing war in Afghanistan, a very unpopular and toxic occupation of Iraq, and Iran taking hostages again.

Sounds like the 1970s have returned in earnest...

Pas De Deus Ex Machina

Whoa boy!

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's test firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile on Tuesday was in response to U.S. steps that have sparked an arms race and undermined world security, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday.

"Our American partners have left the ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Treaty. We have warned them then that we will come out with a response to maintain the strategic balance in the world," Putin told a news conference.

"We conducted a test of a new strategic ballistic missile with multiple warheads, and of a new cruise missile, and will continue to improve our resources."

"We are not the initiators of this new round of the arms race," said Putin. "(Our partners) are stuffing eastern Europe with new weapons. A new base in Bulgaria, another in Romania, a site in Poland, radar in the Czech Republic . . . what are we supposed to do? We cannot just observe all this."

Russia test-fired a new intercontinental ballistic missile on Tuesday featuring multiple warheads that senior officials said could pierce any missile defense system, including the planned U.S. shield in Europe.

I'm sorry....the world's not scary enough????

Not that we didn't see this coming. Even regular readers of this blog had to know:

“The Cold War left us ‘unexploded bombs’ – double standards and templates of bloc-centered thinking,” Putin said at a security conference in Munich on Saturday.

“A single-polar world has never come around. No latter(sic) how much this term is adorned, it means only one thing – one centre of power, one centre of force, the world of one master, one sovereign. This is pernicious for the system itself and for the sovereign, too, because destroys it from within,” the president said.

Remarkable in this short excerpt from the speech (deliberately posted by the Russian government on the Tass website) is the veiled threat that Putin makes in the guise of a prediction: that the US will destroy itself. This hearkens back to Kruschev's "We will bury you" 1960 speech at the United Nations, which is often deliberately misquoted to mean that the Soviet Union, through its aggression and actions, would overtly destroy the US, when what he said could also be construed as "we will outlast you and see you at your funeral."

So it's not really fair to call today's story a deus ex machina, although it certainly comes as a surprise...and a shock to the storm troopers of the right who probably believed Putin was as cowed by Bush as Bush was by Putin.

You heard me..."cowed". Despite the braggadoccio of this administration, the clear pattern of Bush's dealings with Putin have always been an attempt to impress upon Vladi his strength and his seriousness.

The problem for Bush is, Putin reads the newspaper. And his intelligence reports. Hell, he probably watches CNN International!

Bush has become the laughingstock of the world, and the US is paying a dear price for his idiocy. An immature, spoiled little brat, who clowns around at the drop of a hat with people who have earned the respect of being treated with dignity.

One can understand that the buffoon himself is uncomfortable with the trappings of office: since he never really had to work hard at anything, having "people" handle things for him (like getting him out of the draft, like bailing his businesses out, like paying for a new stadium for his team, like stealing elections for him), he never felt he deserved the majesty of office.

Fine. But people like Angela Merkel deserve better than to be molested in a G8 meeting. She worked hard for her money.

And Vladimir Putin rose up through the ranks of a notoriously vicious and shark-infested agency, the KGB. To think that he's going to take Bush seriously at all was a joke, and that's before you take into account his clowning.

It's hard to imagine this comparison, but the poor kid from Hope, Arkansas, who had a hardscrabble existence, born of a poor family, who sweated and worked hard to make something of himself, had more polish and class and elegance than the guy born with the silver tea set in his mouth, third generation scion of a political dynasty, who attended Exeter and Andover and Yale and Harvard, all on his family's name.

God help us if we ever elect another Bush.

Shivving A Lame Duck

I have to give Vladimir Putin credit. He sure does have his finger on the pulse of the American attention span.

Amidst all the fuff and bluster of the scrutiny of our domestic agenda, knowing full well that now that Yeltsin's funeral has passed and the spotlight is off Russia again (with the added formal bit of nostalgia for those heady days of glasnost and perestroika), he's slipped a dagger into the lame duck:

OSLO (Reuters) - A row between the United States and Russia over U.S. plans to build a missile shield in eastern Europe escalated on Thursday when President Vladimir Putin declared a moratorium on a key European arms treaty.

Putin's announcement to the Russian parliament came hours before NATO and Russian officials were due to discuss a project U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said was no threat to Moscow, dismissing such suggestions as "purely ludicrous".

NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said he would ask Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to explain Putin's decision to suspend the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) and rejected Putin's accusation that NATO was ignoring it.

And all this could have been a non-issue if Bush and his administration hadn't left themselves wide open for it. By running and hiding and not taking responsibility for its errors and mistakes in the past six years, Bush has forced a long, drawn out confrontation with a hostile Congress. Putin is merely taking advantage of the distraction.

The CFE Treaty was negotiated in the months after the Cold War among the then-22 member states of NATO and the Warsaw Pact countries with the goal of achieving verifiable reductions in conventional military equipment. It was adapted in 1999 (during the Clinton administration, again showing the enormous impact that great man had).

What triggered this move on Putin's part?

Again, either out of spite for all things Clinton, or in simply the stupidest strategic move since Troy took in a wooden horse, Bush announced plans to base missile interceptors in Poland and radar in the Czech Republic, effectively negating the treaty anyway, and forcing Putin's hand.

There is a quid pro quo here, as well. Both the Czechs and Poles have contributed forces to the Coalition of the Bribed Willing, and have not announced major troop withdrawal plans. Other former Warsaw Pact countries who are now part of NATO and some who are not, have withdrawn troops (Bulgaria and Slovakia being notable amongst these) and subsequently have not been favored with US military installations (and the dollars these bring to those economies, as well as some protection from any potential hegemony by a re-forming Soviet Union.)

Putin, seeing an increased NATO and specifically, American presence on his west, really had no choice but to walk away from this treaty, honored more in the breach than in the commitment.

I'm not liking what I'm seeing. Between this move and the inroads China has made in South Asia, the Middle East and Africa, we're sort of setting up this patchwork World War scenario: this country here favors that country there, while in between are two countries who are each supported by other nations.

Keep your eyes out for visits to unusual places by leaders of China and Russia. Already, Chinese premiere Hu has paid a call to South America, notably Brazil.

This is a chess game, and we're already in mid-game.

Bush
Vladimir Putin
NATO
Russia