Friday, July 14, 2006

A Democratic Day

Today and this weekend, I will be posting a series of items about Democratic politics, how to fix America, and probably some endorsements.

Let's get the ball rolling, shall we?
Hat tip to Miss Cellania for forwarding this site to me.

Good news for Democrats on the election front
Most Americans plan to vote for Democrats


WASHINGTON -- Republicans are in jeopardy of losing their grip on Congress in November. With less than four months to the midterm elections, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that Americans by an almost 3-to-1 margin hold the GOP-controlled Congress in low regard and profess a desire to see Democrats wrest control after a dozen years of Republican rule.

Further complicating the GOP outlook to turn things around is a solid percentage of liberals, moderates and even conservatives who say they'll vote Democratic. The party out of power also holds the edge among persuadable voters, a prospect that doesn't bode well for the Republicans.
But wait, you say! What about the "incumbent factor"? The fact that, historically, 98% of incumbents are re-elected to their seats?

If 1994's ridiculous coup didn't persuade you that Americans can get angry enough to throw people out of office (in that case, good decent hardworking Americans, in this case, rascals of the first order), then this might:
The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51 percent to 40 percent.

Not surprisingly, 81 percent of self-described liberals said they would vote for the Democrat. Among moderates, though, 56 percent backed a Democrat in their district and almost a quarter of conservatives - 24 percent - said they will vote Democratic.

Democrats also held the advantage among persuadable voters - those who are undecided or wouldn't say whom they prefer. A total of 51 percent said they were leaning Democrat, while 41 percent were leaning Republican.
What does this mean?

In a traditional election year, the incumbent party usually holds a slight edge, let's say 46%-42%, with a heavily undecided component usually swaying the outcome, and most of those critical voters will either make up their minds or change their minds in the booth.

In 1994, the year of Newt Gingrich's "Contract On With America," the two parties were dead even four months ahead of the election and overall, Republican candidates began to pull away after Labor Day.

This poll was taken just after the Fourth of July.

The only significant good news for the Republican party is that, on foreign affairs and terror, they hold a ten-point lead. This might be part of why you're seeing the "end of cowboy diplomacy." Also, you can expect a ramping up of terror-related stories (plots reported months or even years after they were "uncovered," such as the recent scare about the New York/New Jersey PATH train bomb plot, in which actual arrests were made three months ago.)

[Side note: Curious thing about that PATH train "attack." Much of the groundwork done in the arrest was performed by Lebanese authorities. You know, the same country Israel is pounding, as we speak, with bombs.]

The final nail in the Republican coffin, however, is this:
Overall, only 27 percent approved of the way Congress is doing its job. Lawmakers get favorable marks from 36 percent of conservatives, 28 percent of moderates and 17 percent of liberals.
(emphasis added)

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