The appeal of Obama's healthcare reform has finally been filed with the US Supreme Court.
Normally, we'd assume this to be a 5-4 GOP decision overturning the law.
Not so fast. Justice Anthony Kennedy is really the key vote here. As this Daily Kos diary points out, Kennedy has been pretty firm in his belief that a broad interpretation of the Commerce Clause may be more necessary now than in the days of the Founders, the reason this case is anywhere near the SCOTUS to begin with.
In the one case where he has come out full-throated in support of the Clause is a case which relied on a purely commercial activity, which clearly the insurance reform is.
Not saying it's a slam dunk (I think the diarist is engaging in a bit of hyperbole there), but that it will make for an interesting argument.