You heard it here first: I fully expect the Democrats to chip large portions of the Republican majority in the House away, if not overtake them completely.
Right now, there's a distinct anti-Washington fervor in the nation. There was two years ago, too, but the Teabaggers fucked that up by co-opting any populist agenda into the now-transparent "let's give MORE money to our corporate overlords so we can beg for scraps" ploy that created the whole Mitt Romney candidacy that is limping into the nomination.
Really. Think about it. After Occupy Wall Street & the 99% meme, and Mitt's revelations of paying less than 15% on tens of millions in income, the average voter has got to be thinking "Who's really in charge here?"
Add to that the overheated anti-Latino rhetoric of the Republican primary campaign-- and the last Congress, altogether-- and you have a recipe for taking back enough seats, 25, to overturn the balance of power in Congress.
And for the final kicker, if Romney wins the nomination, the vaunted "enthusiasm" factor the Republicans allegedly had flies out the window. Romney's coattails will be next to non-existent-- he might bolster some Northwest and Mountain races-- and indeed, it will be the down-ticket votes that propel him to any showing whatsoever.
That said, it troubles me how much superPAC money there is floating around. As you are no doubt aware, Newt Gingirich has been the beneficiary of something like $10 million from Sheldon Adelson, who could easily afford to pump another $490 million and still break even on one year's taxes.
Romney can afford at least nine figures himself. Add Adelson's generosity to any potential Republican candidate, altho clearly not as enthusiastically as to Newt, and you have a formidable bloc of money, despite Obama's war chest of nearly a billion.
Worse, this superPAC money can go downstream too and influence tight races, thus propelling Mitt's prospects a little further.
Things look good for Democrats this year, but don't get cocky. It ain't over til the last Cayman withdrawal is made.